Philip E. Tetlock stands as a preeminent scholar in the field of judgment and decision-making with profound contributions to understanding expert forecasting capabilities. He currently holds the prestigious Leonore Annenberg University Professorship at the University of Pennsylvania, with joint appointments spanning the Wharton School of Business and the School of Arts and Sciences. A Canadian-born researcher who earned his doctoral degree in psychology from Yale University in 1979, Tetlock has established himself through decades of rigorous scholarship that bridges political science, psychology, and organizational behavior. His distinguished academic journey includes previous positions as the Mitchell Endowed Chair at UC Berkeley's Haas School, the Burt Endowed Chair at The Ohio State University, and fellowships at Stanford University and the Russell Sage Foundation, demonstrating his cross-disciplinary impact and recognition.
Tetlock's groundbreaking research fundamentally transformed our understanding of expert judgment through his landmark twenty-year study analyzing over 82,000 predictions made by 284 experts across political and economic domains, culminating in his award-winning book Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? published in 2005. This seminal work revealed that expert predictions often performed no better than simple algorithms or non-expert predictions, challenging conventional wisdom about specialized knowledge in forecasting complex events. Building on these insights, Tetlock co-founded The Good Judgment Project, a large-scale prediction tournament funded by the U.S. intelligence community that identified superforecasters whose accuracy significantly exceeded that of trained intelligence analysts with access to classified information. His research demonstrated that specific cognitive traits and forecasting techniques could be systematically cultivated to dramatically improve predictive accuracy, leading to the development of training methods that transformed ordinary citizens into highly skilled forecasters. These discoveries have fundamentally reshaped approaches to strategic forecasting across government agencies, financial institutions, and international organizations seeking to navigate complex geopolitical landscapes.
As a Fellow of both the American Academy of Arts and Sciences and the MacArthur Foundation, Tetlock's influence extends beyond academia into practical applications that enhance decision-making worldwide. He co-founded Good Judgment Inc to translate his research into actionable forecasting tools and training programs used by organizations seeking to improve strategic planning and risk assessment. Through extensive workshops and consultations, Tetlock has trained professionals across diverse sectors in the methodologies that distinguish superior forecasters, emphasizing probabilistic thinking, cognitive reflection, and collaborative information processing. His ongoing research continues to refine our understanding of the psychological attributes and training protocols that enable individuals to develop exceptional forecasting abilities, with implications for improving policy decisions in an increasingly complex global environment. Tetlock's work remains at the forefront of a paradigm shift in how institutions approach uncertainty, transforming forecasting from an art into a teachable skill with measurable outcomes.
