Adrian Raftery is a preeminent scholar whose pioneering work in statistical methodology has transformed analytical approaches across multiple scientific disciplines. He currently serves as the Blumstein-Jordan Professor Emeritus of Statistics and Sociology at the University of Washington where he maintained a distinguished faculty position from 1986 until transitioning to emeritus status in 2024. Born in Dublin Ireland he earned both his undergraduate degree in Mathematics and Masters in Statistics from Trinity College Dublin before completing his doctorate in mathematical statistics at the Université Pierre et Marie Curie in Paris under Paul Deheuvels. His academic career began as a lecturer at Trinity College Dublin from 1980 to 1986 where he was elected to fellowship in his final year prior to joining the University of Washington.
Raftery's seminal contributions to Bayesian statistics have established foundational methodologies that are now standard practice in statistical analysis across diverse fields. His development of Bayesian model selection and Bayesian model averaging techniques has provided researchers with powerful tools for addressing uncertainty in model choice with applications spanning social sciences environmental studies and public health. Recognized as the world's most cited researcher in mathematics for the decade 1995-2005 by Thomson-ISI he has authored over 240 peer-reviewed publications that have significantly advanced statistical theory and its practical implementation. His innovative approaches to probabilistic forecasting and population projections have delivered critical methodological advances for addressing complex demographic and climate challenges.
Beyond his direct research impact Raftery has profoundly shaped his disciplines through institutional leadership and academic mentorship founding the Center for Statistics and Social Sciences at the University of Washington which operated from 1999 to 2009. He has supervised 36 doctoral students 21 of whom have secured tenure-track academic positions and has 170 academic descendants who continue to advance statistical methodology worldwide. His exceptional contributions were recognized through election to the U.S. National Academy of Sciences in 2009 and fellowship in the American Academy of Arts and Sciences in 2003 affirming his status as a leading figure in quantitative social science. Raftery continues to develop cutting-edge statistical methods that address pressing societal challenges maintaining an active research program despite his transition to emeritus status.
